The real threat are web apps. The kind that will download to your device the moment you open then, allowing you offline access, whether they're news, games, email or some other utility. If you don't believe they'll work -- and eliminate dependencies on plugins outside of open web standards, like flash -- go download a free copy of Angry Birds for Google Chrome and try disconnecting from your local network. Magic!

Steve Jobs thought web apps were the future too, in 2008 when he announced that the iPhone would have plenty of apps -- all of them available through the browser. As is often the case with Jobs, he was just a little too far ahead of the curve (think of the Newton, his first attempt to create an iPhone-like device) which led him to later reverse himself and create a native app store anyway.

Here's how Brian Kennish, formerly an engineer at Google and now something of a punk-rock privacy-protecting developer, put it in a recent email:

"One word: distribution. There are 2 billion web users versus 50 million iOS users."

Interesting, but I'm not sure I'm purchasing it. It will come down to UI/UX. If that can be replicated by a web experience then sure...but if the local app continues to offer the superior feel the web alternative will not take hold.